Automatic Information System of Risk Assessment for Agricultural Enterprises of Ukraine

Abstract

An information system (IS) for analyzing, assessing risks and their impact on the economic activity of agribusiness in Ukraine is developed. The Global Administrative Risk Management System can use this information system or its parts as a component. A new method for designing IS for risk analysis and assessment in the sphere of agriculture is suggested. An original mathematical model of such an IP is used. This mathematical model is specifically designed to reduce the IS resources’ expenditures. A significant reduction in the volume of calculations per unit of time has made it possible to significantly simplify IS and to reduce the price of hardware and standard IS software. This makes the information system an affordable budget option for information support of small and medium-sized agricultural enterprises in Ukraine. To create a risk management model, it is suggested to separate the system of management and decision making and the system of risk monitoring. These two systems have different tasks and are implemented by fundamentally different mathematical algorithms. The risks of most agricultural projects have a high degree of uncertainty. Therefore, even the composition of the risks’ set is dynamic. All possible risks are suggested to be passed through the monitoring procedure. To do this, a separate software unit with an autonomous security system should be used. Models of the codomain of risk change are presented where the specified region is a nonstationary scalar or vector field. An improved scheme of designing AIS for analysis and risk assessment in agriculture was suggested, which allowed significantly reducing the IS resources expenditures. Significant decrease in the volume of calculations per unit of time allowed significantly simplifying and cheapening the hardware part of the AIS. This made the use of AIS an affordable budget option for the information support for small and medium-sized farms in Ukraine. The developed AIS for the risks analysis and assessment and of their impact on the economic activity of the agro-enterprise was tested in Odessa and Mykolaiv regions.