GEODETIC MONITORING OF THE CHERNOBYL NPP SHELTER: RESEARCH, ANALYSIS AND FORECAST OF STRUCTURAL STABILITY

Abstract

The paper presents a detailed analysis of geodetic observations of settlements and deformations of the Shelter Structure at the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant (ChNPP). Conducted in July 2024 as part of the second cycle of comprehensive monitoring, the study aimed to obtain precise data on the condition and stability of structures, essential for ensuring safety and enabling the facility’s transformation into an environmentally secure system. Special attention was given to measurements of spatial and vertical displacements, which allow assessing structural conditions and potential risks to operational safety. The data were used to analyze the impact of detected changes on structural durability and environmental safety and to forecast further deformation trends. These forecasts support strategies for maintaining stability and minimizing environmental risks. The primary goal was to acquire reliable data on the Shelter’s enclosure structures, focusing on deformation and settlement. Such data are crucial for monitoring displacement dynamics, evaluating stability, and predicting potential emergencies. This approach enables not only the prevention of structural failure but also the development of effective stabilization strategies during the Shelter’s transformation. The study’s results provide a clear assessment of risks associated with structural degradation and form the basis for informed decision-making regarding safe operation. They are essential for maintaining long-term stability, ensuring timely detection of threats, and preventing catastrophic scenarios. Overall, the findings offer critical insights for ensuring both structural integrity and environmental safety, supporting the ongoing transformation of the ChNPP Shelter into a secure and stable facility.